Crystal Balls and Petroleum
There are many good reasons to cut back on oil consumption, and moving to self sufficiency, especially in terms of food, is wise, prudent and good. Global warming is one good reason, and preventing oil spills another.
But knowing when a commodity such as oil is going to run out, is not hard, its impossible Here is an article on the current oil glut, which it predicted. More interestingly, it also explains why all models are weak predictors of this resource.