https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ is the current home of 538, Nate Silver’s project to provide statistical insight into politics and specifically the electoral college.
On Sunday the forecast was 52% Trump, the first forecast I’ve seen favoring him. Just now, 50-50, hence this post.
538 started forecasting in 2008 and has been rather good. In 2008 Obama was 90% late and in the last few days became 99%; nonetheless they did not see Indiana turning blue. In the 2016 election Trump was given 11-16% until the last few days when it screamed up to 24%–when working with chess engines the trending can be more important than the evaluation, and I think that’s what happened then.
I bookmarked the link and check in from time to time. I saw Harris’ convention bounce her to the mid-60s and then it was a long steady trend downwards until Sunday’s Trump 52.
Harris probably lost AZ & GA over the past few weeks.
Slight edge for Trump in NC, Harris in MI WI NV.
PA total tossup and will be contested to the last breath.
Great idea
Thanks! It is looking like a neck and neck nail biter hairsplitter of an election if polls are to be believed. All within a margin of error. (And it will come down to some undecided person in North Carolina, so there’s a margin of Erika, too.)
(One note… Nate Silver is no longer there. He got it started but left a year or so ago. I think ABC News (Disney) owns them now.)
I submitted the post mid-afternoon Tuesday the 22nd
so my “just now” referred to that moment, not the time given for the posting.
Trump 51 Harris 49
Trump’s edge in NC increased sharply.