Continuing our election year discussion series, we come to what major media have taken to calling the Acela Primary. It’s named for the Amtrak train line that makes its way through Delaware up the coast and over to Rhode Island.
The latest headlines show us that Trump and Clinton both use Delaware corporations as perfectly legitimate and legal mechanisms for handling millions of dollars of business income. Others use them, of course, to shuffle income around and avoid paying taxes, but not the candidates. No way!
Kasich and Cruz are making some sort of pact to work together to take down Trump. Trump has promised that he’s been putting on an act thus far, and will behave like a good Republican now that he’s heading for the nomination.
In the land of unexpected endorsements, Charles Koch said over the weekend that Clinton would be better than the current Republican choices.
Local favorite Sanders vows to press on until every state votes, and continues to rack up delegates. Clinton surrogates continue to call for him to get out the way. Sanders supporters are plotting their next move: watch him come from behind? support Clinton? vote for Trump? write-in Sanders?
It can all change overnight, and anything can happen.
How are you holding up?
Won't be over anytime soon.
Sanders campaign manager on NPR just said they plan to take this to a contested convention, and that Sanders has already won (… the greater amount of enthusiasm, etc.).
I’m not sure I agree that he’s already won, but I like that they plan to go to all states and to the convention. He has a lot of delegates, which I believe one can trade in for prizes.
How about this for a possible outcome?
In the world of possibilities, what if:
– GOP pushes Trump out and take Cruz/Kasich
– Dems go with Clinton
– Trump does independent
– Sanders supporters do a write-in campaign.
In this what-if scenario, four people are running in November.
Who wins? : )
Already decided
I haven’t yet heard of any organized strategy from Sanders supporters to stage a huge write in campaign but I hope that will come to be. If Clinton gets the nomination (which, sadly seems almost inevitable at this point) then I fully intend to write in Bernie on my ballot. I can’t bring myself to vote for Clinton and I would never vote for a Republican. To my mind Clinton is as close to being a Republican as a Democrat can get. A well organized write in campaign for Bernie would make the election something worth voting in. His ideas are too important to let them get buried in a Clinton presidency.
Exactly ...
… what i was envisioning last night (except i did not follow through to that conclusion, quite logical actually, as to who the Repubs would choose after squishing Drumpf aside.)
A significant four-way race!? Not impossible in this cycle which has already been so full of improbabilities.
And indeed, no one could possibly predict how that would turn out. Especially with more surprises undoubtedly yet to come.
BTW: This just came down the pike, about the deeper implications of what we are watching:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176133/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_has_the_american_age_of_decline_begun/
not so great?
There is an interesting observation in the linked article – that Trump is the first to openly run on the idea that America is not great right now, as the center of his campaign. Contrasted with others that run on the idea that the US is the greatest as a starting point.
Maybe the fact that Sanders
Maybe the fact that Sanders campaign manager at this point thinks there will be a contested convention indicates why Sanders has fallen behind so far that it’s mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. His own campaign manager doesn’t understand how primaries work.
Results
Trump sweeps all five.
Clinton and Sanders both got delegates, with Clinton having the edge for this round due to a few solid wins. (Connecticut goes in my book as a tie, despite the official declaration, because I expected her to completely trounce him with Maryland like numbers.)
I was expecting Clinton to get all 5, but she struggled in RI and Conn, and Penn wasn’t exactly a blowout. Maryland and Delaware were all hers.
The next set of states aren’t so guaranteed for Clinton. The race continues to be interesting.
If you follow 538 you
If you follow 538 you wouldn’t have been surprised by RI and Conn. Bernie always had the edge in RI and he moved up in the last few days in Conn. Bernie would need to take the next few states by large double digit numbers and he probably will do that in Oregon. But numerically it looks pretty unlikely that he’ll catch up enough to make any difference.
On it goes
t check 538 from time to time. Polls have been wildly weird this year. I did expect his win in RI, but assumed her wealthy and her undereducated bases would propel her in Connecticut, though 538 did have the piece on how his numbers continue to rise and hers continue to drop – to the point of it being almost 50-50 nationwide.
Clinton will really need to figure out a way to appeal to a wider group to win in the fall. Maybe she’s counting on anti-Trump GOP support?
Will the Clinton campaign reach out to Sanders supporters in a meaningful way, or will the campaign blame those voters for not coming out for her in the fall? It’s the candidate’s job to win people over…
Next states are Indiana, Nebraska, West VA, Kentucky, and Oregon. I’d expect Sanders to do fairly well in all of these.
C'mon Chris, "undereducated
C’mon Chris, “undereducated bases”? Can’t we all just get along? As my sainted mother says “Put the shoe on the other foot.” How would you feel if I said that Bernie’s “undereducated bases” propelled his win in RI. I’m voting for whichever one of them prevails but to be honest it’s looking like it’s going to be Hillary. So let’s not be insulting her voters or his. Well you can I guess if you want, but I’m not going there. The nationwide polls mean nothing at this point. Bernie hasn’t come near to being vetted as much as Clinton and there’s a lot in his background, god love him, that isn’t going to go down too easily in many parts of this country. And they’ll go after him both barrels blazing if he gets the nomination. Just as they have with her for the last 20 years.
Yup.
Clinton is benefited with support from low income urban districts. It’s a slice of her demographic.
To be clear, I’m talking about the poorest inner city voters who are undereducated. For example, I read interviews with people who said they had no TV or newspapers and had no idea who was running, but they’d vote for Clinton because she might give them jobs. That, to me, seems like an undereducated vote. And they add up in her column more than in Sanders.
It’s not an insult or meant as one. It’s an observation. They aren’t dumb, but have not had access to basic information to inform their voting. That’s all.
And, by the way, anyone can vote for anyone they want. I find it depressing that so many vote against their own interests, and their reasons seem odd to me, but they are free to do so.
Jeez Chris. I assure you that
Jeez Chris. I assure you that many in NYC who live in the low income urban areas are not undereducated they are just underemployed. I think you’re watching people selected out for TV interviews and making some pretty baseless assumptions that are in fact insulting to a lot of people. And in fact Clinton is benefitting basically from urban districts, low, middle, high and stratospherically high incomes. I find your comment a little odd. You could say that Bernie benefits from undereducated voters because so many of his supporters are from the more rural areas. And then I could proceed to make some comments about the lack of access to basic information in rural areas, no wi-fi and all. Or actually is your comment any different than saying young college students are voting for Bernie because he talks about free college. I mean I’ve seen interviews like that too. Really. I know you don’t mean this to be insulting but it kind of is. And it’s kind of judgmental also. I’ve lived in more than a couple of major urban areas and I’ve found that you just can’t assume that someone who is poor is “undereducated.” Some are, but a hell a of lot aren’t, just like some college kids like Bernie because they want free school but a hell of a lot of his supporters have wider and deeper concerns that he appeals to. I could judge them all by those interviews as some have. But I wouldn’t do it. But again I ask you what the difference is between what you said and someone who says they saw some interviews with people who said they’re supporting Bernie because he’ll give them free school? I don’t see much of one. And actually I don’t have a problem with people getting free school or jobs for that matter.
Interesting how?
It would be interesting if there was any plausible way for Bernie to win the nomination short of Hillary having a heart attack. Since there isn’t, the race is far from interesting and it looks more and more like Bernie is going to start to damage the Democratic ticket come November.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/today-is-clintons-chance-to-end-the-groundhog-day-campaign/
An interesting article on the
An interesting article on the race, particularly as regards Clinton’s demographics versus Bernies. http://garnetnews.com/2016/04/26/sanders-revolution-wont-work/
Clinton vs Trump
I can’t think of a worse choice unless it’s Beelzebub versus Lucifer (excuse me, I mean Clinton versus Cruz).