Primary Numbers and the Combined Anti-Trump

As the primary process rolls on, the media has tended to focus on the simplest form of result, declaring winners and losers in the tightest of races. But there is more to the aggregate numbers than simple winners and losers, state by state. A closer look at who voted for whom and where reveals some interesting things about both parties, not least of which is the power of the combined anti-Trump, about which more later.

First, the Democrats. Hillary Clinton has won a fair number of states so far, but not all of them were landslides. For instance, she “won” Massachusetts by a mere 1.4%, not exactly a mandate-making majority. She won Iowa by an even tinier margin of 4 votes, which translates to less than a third of one percent. Even in Nevada, her margin of victory was only 5%. These states are outside the deep south.

Within the southern block Clinton’s wins have been truly huge, but with the exception of Louisiana, all her wins were in states where Republican turnout was higher than Democratic. Clinton won big in the south, but may be less likely to carry southern states in the general election. (To be fair, Sanders won three decidedly red states himself, as the schedule is slanted in that direction).

How many more Republicans than Democrats so far? There have been over 2.5 million more Republican voters than Democratic in the 21 primaries through Super Saturday. This will change as more states vote, but it does show how tilted the early primaries have been toward the Republican portion of the electorate. On a related note, for the first time since Gallup started counting eight years ago, red states now outnumber blue states by 20-14.

Then there are the Sanders states, which he won by healthy margins across the board. It’s too early to declare a trend, but if many other northern, midwestern and northeastern states vote the way Minnesota, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Nebraska did, Clinton could have a fight on her hands.

On the Republican side, Trump has the most raw votes at about 3.6 million with Cruz a close second at 3 million and Rubio third with 2.2 million. Trump haters should be happy – he isn’t running away with it. Trump supporters should be thanking their lucky stars Rubio is still around. If Rubio were to end his bid, Trump would have to pick up those voters or face a grueling head-to-head with Cruz which he would likely lose. He doesn’t have the votes to take on a unified anti-Trump candidate if the other anti-Trumps (Rubio, Kasich) drop out.

The combined anti-Trump could also spell trouble for Clinton. Clinton recently boasted that her votes are higher than Trump’s, which is true, but not higher than Trump plus Cruz plus Rubio. It’s early yet and a lot could still happen, but the numbers are far from cut and dried, no matter how simple the press makes it sound.

Will Trump’s lead hold? Will Hillary’s? And what of the combined anti-Trump? Hold on to your hats folks. Things are about to get even more interesting.