As we watch the primaries unfold (a process that continues until early June, if you can believe it), I thought I would finally take a few minutes to figure out how the primaries actually work these days, and where the candidates stand. Here’s what I discovered.
On the Republican side, a number of states, especially those with early primaries, award delegates proportionally, according to how many votes the candidate received. Then there are the winner-take-all states. Some states have a winner-take-all threshold such that if someone wins a certain percent of the vote (say 50%, as in Alabama) they get all the delegates. However, a number of later Republican primaries are straight-up winner-take-all and the winner will get all that state’s delegates. Examples are Florida, Ohio, and California.
Currently, Donald Trump has 67 delegates and 385,666 votes or 33.5%. He is trailed by Ted Cruz (11 delegates; 249,645 votes) and Marco Rubio (10 delegates; 239,141 votes).
As for the Democrats, there are no winner-take-all states — delegates are awarded proportionately for all states (with the exception of the much discussed super delegates). The only stipulation is that a candidate must win at least 15% of the popular vote in a given state.
Currently, the delegate count for Sanders and Clinton is exactly even with each candidate at 51 delegates. The popular vote advantage goes to our own Bernie Sanders with 151,584 votes (60.4%) while Clinton has 95,252 votes (37.95%).
So about those super delegates — who are they exactly? Well, they’re Democratic party “leaders”, members of the DNC, and elected officials such as senators, representatives, and governors. And who are they likely to vote for? Why, Hillary Clinton of course. According to online sources, she has the endorsement of over 60% of super delegates while Bernie has the declared support of a mere 3%.
As the races heat up and the press becomes more and more anxious to declare a winner, it’s worthwhile to remember that for Democrats at least, it’s a long race and outright wins aren’t necessary to win delegates. Even in states where Sanders is expected to “lose,” he’s going to win delegates. Keeping it close is going to be key for him. Not so much for the Republicans, where a strong candidate could have it pretty much wrapped up by the end of April.
smh
It’s all very painful.
With each election cycle I’m more grateful I’m not immortal.
Democrats Tied For Delegates, Sanders Leading In Popular Vote
That’s quite a different story than the major media is generally telling.
I haven’t seen any headlines this weekend saying: “Democrats Tied For Delegates, Sanders Leading In Popular Vote”
Only 47 states and some territories to go.
Thinking about the GOP
It seems as if it is time for the GOP to push out Cruz and Kasich, and settle on Rubio as the one to take on Trump. The strategy there would be to hope that all the non-Trump voters line up behind Rubio to give him a slight edge in those winner-take-all states coming along, to try to knock Trump down a few pegs.
At least, that’s what I’d do if I were the GOP inner circle. If there is one any more.
It almost looks like the are on the verge of a four-party system in the US. Tea Party right, old GOP, old Democrats, new left. A bit early to tell, but the centers don’t seem to be holding for the traditional parties.