The volume of presidential campaigns is currently set at maximum, as campaigns scramble to shore up support prior to the nation’s first primaries and the slow descent into summer conventions. Things remain lively for those who like this show:
– Trump says Sarah Palin can have a position in his administration, if elected.
– Sanders is now besting Clinton in NH by 27 points according to a CNN/WMUR poll.
– NBC is reporting that some of Clinton emails on her private server were designated Top Secret/Special Access.
– Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and Christie are driving around New Hampshire today looking for support, but Kasich is gaining ground.
We now turn to our team of experts for commentary on these and other issues…
...and one year from today...
We’ll start all over again and begin wondering who the 2020 race will feature. On Jan. 20 2009 it was not even in my wildest imagination that I envisioned the very real possibility that our choice in November will be Sanders versus Trump.
Good time to show support
My genuine feeling at this point is that I’d like to see things swing as far left as possible. Not so much for me, though it has been a rather uninspiring 35 years of moving to the right, but for future generations. I’d like us to bequeath to them guaranteed health care, education, and economic security.
If Sanders were not in the running, I would probably be looking at third party candidates and write-in possibilities. For now, he’s clearly the farthest left the establishment can tolerate (barely). And he’s not that radical, as he himself points out.
His presence in the primary season has led Clinton to borrow and adapt parts of his agenda, but I worry that this is temporary, election-season pandering rather than true commitment on her part. I’d prefer the real thing, as long as the real thing is an option.
People are beginning to take Sanders more seriously, it seems, nationally. He’s moving out of the Kucinich-Dean level of campaigning and approaching more of the Obama-level of enthusiasm, it appears (for this week, this hour…). I’m enjoying watching the rest of the country discover him.
Of course, Sanders has many hurdles left to overcome, and the mud is starting to be thrown in his direction. Professional, sleazy, anything-to-win politics is ramping up, too.
So, in primary season, if there is an option worth supporting, this is the time to show support. We can vote for Clinton, Sanders, Trump, Cruz, etc. and know that we are really expressing ourselves. Later, when parties decide who will be their final choices, we can decide what to do at that time.
NH Dems Grumble
NH Democrats are calling for more debates, specifically one after the Iowa caucuses and before the NH primary, as has been traditional for quite a while. They say voters are worse off with fewer, semi-hidden debates, and say that Republicans are dominating the debate space and viewership.
National Review
The National Review has just put out an anti-Trump issue, gathering as many conservative writers as possible to pen stories of the horrors of their GOP frontrunner.
I’m trying to recall when the GOP has disliked their frontrunner this much before. Must be tough to be GOP party leaders at the moment – how to destroy their best shot, and how to decide who to replace him. Add up most of the bottom tier GOP candidates’ support and they still lose to Trump.
Do we have three parties now? Democrats, Republicans, and Other?
maybe we have a budding democracy?
And perhaps the Democrats will not be far behind in their behavior objecting to Bernie. In any event, as I said above (and, I meant 2013 not 2009) who could have imagined? Though I personally cannot even leave the sound on when Trump comes on the TV, he has engaged people. I have to give him credit for that. Bernie has done the same and is way more to my liking. While this isn’t exactly the way I would plan it coming about, I see more hope for democracy and THE PEOPLE being more in charge than I thought possible. People do care, they do have opinions, and can be inspired. I honestly wasn’t sure if we’d ever see that. Now it is time for people who can help the quality of citizens’ participation to be thoughtful, respectful, etc. to jump into action. I don’t care if the opinions differ greatly. In fact, learning how to negotiate civilly through those waters would be a great turn of events. What I care about is that we seize this opportunity and use it to help people move forward and increase/improve their participation, their democracy skills. When that happens, the elected officials will start acting more accountable to their constituent.
So this crazy primary season, when one looks deeper, brings me more hope for our future than I dared think possible just months ago.
The Unexpected Strength of Non-Mainstream Candidates
I’m kind of amazed that Sanders and Trump have gotten this far, but it says something about the mood of the American electorate. With regard to Trump, he may be anathema to most Democrats, but he’s still wicked popular with a lot of Republicans. I see the Trump voters as people who are desperate to break the status quo but too right wing to vote for Bernie. (You could probably say the same in reverse about more recent Bernie converts.) The mainstream candidates are struggling against wave of populism that seems to be getting stronger. How big a wave, we don’t know yet, but we’re soon going to find out.
Anyway, I agree — anything to get people engaged and doing democracy again. It will be interesting to see what we decide.
Trump supporters
I see the Trump people as folks who know that they are getting the shaft under the current system but have fallen prey to appeals to “nativism,” blaming anyone who they identify as “other” (immigrants, Black and Brown people, refugees, poor people) as the source of the problem. That is a cunning strategy on the part of those who actually hold and wield power. If they can divide us and turn us against each other they continue to accrue wealth, power, and influence while we fight each other for crumbs. Race in particular has been used over and over in this country to divide and conquer.
Why
I’m wondering if the Clinton sneaky plan is to to become an underdog. Her team seems to be doing as badly as possible, given how much this was in the proverbial bag for her not so long ago.
The only thing I can think is that they are intentionally doing a bad job. But why?
Right now, as I type, a trending topic own Twitter is “words that don’t describe Hillary” and is filled with people contributing words such as honest, presidential, middle class, ethical, and so on.
Weird election year.
Waiting
I tried to test this last night. I watched some Sanders speaking to steelworkers on C-Span, to be followed by a live Clinton event in a middle school in Iowa schedule for 9:30 pm ET.
I gave her some time to warm up the crowd and went to watch at about 9:40, but a tape of Donald Trump was being replayed. Huh?
After Trump, the announcer said Clinton was running late. So they started to show a Martin O’Malley event from earlier in the day. This was shortly after 10 pm.
10:30 no Clinton, Martin O’Malley is still getting good air time. (They show the Clinton room in a corner of the screen, showing people dancing, talking, looking at watches, and some leaving.)
10:45 more O’Malley in prime time. Some people put up some flags and put a stool under the basketball hoop for Clinton.
11 pm – They finally cut off O’Malley and go to the Clinton room again, where a state minority leader announces… that she’s on her way and he’s going to say a few things. He jokes about how politicians always say “this is the most important election in your lifetime.” Then it is time… for a video!
At about 11:10 pm, Clinton walks out like a rock star, tells everyone they are amazing, and said it was worth the wait (implying she was the one waiting). No apologies or explanations. No “sorry to keep you waiting, your time is valuable.” It’s just showtime.
Clinton starts up. “This is the most important election of your lifetime…”
Underlying strata--geez
I have theory percolating which relates to your perception of Hillary.
The gist is that we as a populace are regressing as far as emotional maturity goes. My post on the token economy touched on just one aspect of this. A blatant sign is the ubiquitous personality worship that’s evident in all public life. The media’s compulsion over stars and sensationalist stories makes clear we are rushing downstream in this direction.
Regarding the election, it seems that idolatry and idealism are an easier sell than pragmatism. It’s the false binary all over again. Which is more desirable, the ‘hot model’, or one willing to put in the time and effort to build relationships, reciprocity and trust.
I’m not suggesting that Hillary is without the maniacal ego, or desire for adulation, or faults, just that she seems the most platonic in the field. By the measure of self-deification, it looks like she’s trying to fail. Certainly, judging by the terms one-who-would-be hoisted to a ridiculous and unexamined veneration, where any id driven spew is fair game, she is lacking.
My hunch is that this very thing, droll as it may be in contrast to the would-be demagogues, will carry her to the finish line victorious. Maybe one of the last displays of civic common sense, before we become a nation of unrepentant star mongers.
Hillary and ego
Are you saying that Hillary is the least ego-driven candidate running, and that people who support Sanders and Trump are just star-mongering?
Just want to make sure I understand the argument…. 😉
Yugegos
I’m sure anyone who seeks ‘the highest office’ has off the charts self-regard. If someone had a nickel for every time she said aloud or to herself ‘first woman president’, I’m sure they’d be into big bucks. I’m mostly saying Hillary appears to be capable of listening, and is campaigning on that too. The others seem far more at ease pontificating.
Militarist
Hillary Clinton, in the words of Ralph Nader, “kneels before the war industry.” She is a militarist. Her answers to questions are usually 8 paragraph pontifications that leave the listener wondering what she was actually trying to say. Hillary Clinton is a corporatist. Her largest campaign contributors are from the banking industry and from Time Warner (#5 largest), which owns CNN and a host of media assets. I would much rather elect a Democratic Independent, who doesn’t take any money from the war lobbyists, the bankers, and the big media corporations. That candidate is Bernie Sanders, truly an Independent. Oh, and the last time this country elected a Democratic Socialist President of the United States, he, FDR, served four consecutive terms in office, and they had to enact term limits to keep him from possibly running for and winning a fifth term in office.
Well Bill was the first
Well Bill was the first Bombastic Bozo president whose ruddy nose you could actually see grow on national TV with every reoccurring and layering lie and cover up (Nixon’s was already in full bloom if you remember).Hillary just get’s more smug, not that they aren’t both extremely intelligent people in their own right, it’s just how they conduct themselves with all those smarts is the real shame.
Since we're semi-documenting
Since we’re semi-documenting this for the annals of history, let’s note that Donald Trump, frontrunner for the GOP has begin fighting with FOX news and is refusing to attend their debate.
Following Iowa and maybe as long as into NH, someone should drop out. Often it is those who neither win, place, or show. Who will it be? How will it change the dynamic?
Typically by this point I’m searching for third party alternatives, but I’m semi-enjoying the choices being put forth so far. Everyone is still standing, of course, and as they drop, my feelings might change. But for now, there are people on both sides that I could see doing a tolerable job of being president.
Trump isn’t one of them, but given his success thus far, I do have to wonder what would come of us if he does make it. He seems as likely as any of the leading candidates. What sort of cabinet would he want to assemble? Would they operate in fear of irrational firings? : )
I’m a bit surprised to see the Bush machine doing poorly, but I don’t think single families should dominate in the White House. It’s one of the reasons I doubt I could vote for another Clinton (or Carter, or Reagan, or Obama….).
I do enjoy that this election cycle is breaking rules and creating some chaotic moments. Nothing seems locked down.
GOP
The Trumpless debate was a treat – for the other GOP candidates. I think Trump made a mistake by not attending. His base will like his maverick style, but there are a lot of people, methinks, that will find it to be a bit off-putting. If you can’t handle a debate from the friendliest of news sources, what does that say about future obligations?
Rubio and Bush seems to be playing a waiting game.
They all seem to be knocking both Sanders and Clinton, making it seem like their advisors think it could still go either way.
Trump & dissent
If you watch any of the YouTube clips from inside Trump’s rallies it is clear that he has zero tolerance for dissenting views and has people who express them, even silently as with a sign, literally removed. He couldn’t remove Megan Kelly so he removed himself. In his Burlington rally people had to say they were Trump supporters to get in. One woman who said she was undecided and was there to “listen and learn” was turned away. Dissenters who got in did so by lying.
On the more humorous side, check out Steven Colbert’s Trump vs. Trump debate. It’s on YouTube (what isn’t?) I guess he’s fine with dissenting from himself.
I'll Only Do It My Way
Trump vs Trump – sums it up, doesn’t it?
I saw him do a press conference where most of it he was berating a reporter for asking a question but getting part of a quote wrong. Trump moved on to other questions, then came back to the same reporter for another chance – if the guy would apologize for his previous question. He didn’t, and Trump wrapped up and left.
Everyone left in the room was laughing, from kids to aged media types.
Still top of the GOP charts…
is it true? finally we'll have some real results?
After all the hoopla and political punditry, finally, Monday, THE PEOPLE will start speaking for sure. And then we’ll have some more punditry till 8 days later, etc. How sad that healthy democracy practices, like straightforward nonpartisan education, and hearing honest ideas and opinions from at least the republican candidates have been so sparse or nonexistent. There have been some substantive comments from the democrats. Throughout it all, though, it is sad to say the media themselves (who frequently lament the state of democracy) seem to me to be most responsible for fomenting this reality. Politicians (especially the masterful Trump) would not do what they do if the media didn’t prioritize it on their “news”.
It is my contention that facts, difficult concepts, and finding solid solutions etc, can be presented in ways that grab people’s attention, too. Perhaps we could give that a try for a while? And encourage participation in the next segment of choosing our next president, where THE PEOPLE continue to speak out in primaries and caucuses.
Low Vs. High Turnout Will Decide the Ioaw Caucuses
Obama won with only 5% in Iowa of all registered democratic voters, and it was one of the largest democratic turnouts in history. I think the turnout on Monday will be the largest in the history of Iowa Caucuses, but still only about 50% of Democrats will show up. Still that is huge. The actual results will not be known for months. But the win will be based on exit polls, which are highly inexact. HRC could win by 1.5 points and then three months later, she could lose by 1.5 points after the official results are in. You can’t bet on an inexact caucus. I would say though that HRC will lose on the exit polls this time. An enormous number of people are going to show up on Monday to caucus.
It May Rain on Your Parade
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/election-2016-iowa-caucus-snow-central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213
It may rain on the one who wishes it will rain on the parade
Weather forecast for Iowa City, Iowa:
Monday Night
Snow likely, *mainly after midnight*. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a northeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
No chance this will stop the voters from turning out.
Well thank god they're just
Well thank god they’re just voting in Iowa City because the forecast for Des Moines for tonight is 5 to 8 inches of snow and heavy wind. The primaries/meetings start at 7pm.
Snow way!
Hmmm. It will be interesting either way – since Iowans have never had snow before. Ever. I think.
More seriously, bad weather would probably limit things by enthusiasm level, wouldn’t it? High enthusiasm folks would go out in a storm; those with less enthusiasm would stay in?
What’s the enthusiasm forecast for those cities? : )
General consensus seems to be
General consensus seems to be that this sort of weather affects turnout of new/first-time voters. But I wonder also since this isn’t a situation of just going to the polls, pulling a lever and then going home if bad weather actually would hamper turnout. It’s Iowa, the towns are hundreds of miles apart, you have to drive through sleety weather in the dark to get home after spending god knows how many hours in some room somewhere standing under signs with candidates names and then moving around like breathing chess pieces. It all seems sort of nutty to me, I mean really who has time to do that sort of thing. Iowans I guess. Well it’s winter, no crops to bring in, as long as the cows get milked and the pigs get fed I guess one could find the time. Oh wait, I’m confusing Iowa with Idaho. Or am I. Well we’ll see what transpires as the picking has begun.
"...finally, Monday, THE PEOPLE will start speaking for sure."
In my lifetime I have never considered American elections to be the best venue where “the people” speak for sure. Some of the people, some of the time maybe. Come to think of it, there is no best venue where the sheeple speak out.
ugh, my sloppy first draft online writing...
Indeed, Vidda, not the best venue! I meant real people in a situation that is not the build up to voting, but the actual thing that counts. People should speak out early and often, always and everywhere (and take some of the burden/privilege off of us bigmouths!!) Just please try to be thoughtful and respectful and civil. And each of us should be a grown up and apologize when we aren’t all those things.
tick tick
It’s pretty neat to see Vermont’s Sanders go from no recognition to basically tying Clinton in Iowa. It’s not surprising that his message is resonating, especially with voters who were ready for hope and change last time out. Still a bit of a long shot, but not that much and fun to watch.
As to Andie’s comment – I saw members of the media say it was refreshing to hear “real people” ask the candidates questions on the campaign trail. Maybe they know there are better questions to ask, but are forced to follow a more boring path by their employers.
Some church
Watching Trump pretend to be very Christian has been fun. He’s saying and doing stupid things that should be reserved for someone more like me, who wasn’t raised as a church-goer:
2 Corinthians walk into a bar…
I drink the little wine and eat the little cracker…
(donating money into the communion plate)
I recognize those stumbles – it’s the kind of thing that trips up non-Christians, not evangelicals or even regular church-goers (I’d assume. Those are easy ones, right?)
What’s weird is that it doesn’t seem to matter to his base. Liberty University endorsed him.
I got curious . . . so it
I got curious . . . so it turns out that only 1 out 5 voters in Iowa turn out for the caucuses and that the vote represents 0.1 percent of the entire US population and like the little section of the rural West where I’m from, a very homogenous one. The bulk of Iowans are of German, Irish, English background which is not exactly representative of the actual make-up of the US citizenry these days. So now it’s on to New Hampshire, another state that doesn’t exactly reflect the overall make-up of the US. So does it really mean anything except “Let The Games Begin”. Probably not. Except for that sweet fact that Trump didn’t exactly sweep the numbers.