There is a lot of solid science to help us understand how to deal with COVID 19, the disease caused by SARS-Cov 2. Keep in mind that this disease is related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) that occurred in 2002-2003, but experts believe that COVID 19 has somehow become more pathogenic.
We want to trust the experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, because he has become a prominent spokesman for delivering news that seems based in science and not politics.
But even Fauci and many other equally reputable scientists admit they wish they knew more about this new disease outbreak to provide guidance about the safest way for societies to proceed. Politics is clouding the picture and erring on the side of caution is the best advice for now. We need to move slowly while using the best available scientific information.
I am reminded of the parable of the blind men and an elephant in relation to how the pandemic is unfolding. Here is a description from Wikipedia.
“The parable of the Blind Men and an Elephant originated in the ancient Indian subcontinent, from where it has been widely diffused. It is a story of a group of blind men who have never come across an elephant before and who learn and conceptualize what the elephant is like by touching it. Each blind man feels a different part of the elephant’s body, but only one part, such as the side or the tusk. They then describe the elephant based on their limited experience and their descriptions of the elephant are different from each other. In some versions, they come to suspect that the other person is dishonest and they come to blows. The moral of the parable is that humans have a tendency to claim absolute truth based on their limited, subjective experience as they ignore other people’s limited, subjective experiences which may be equally true.”
In our world today we are mixing subjective experience with what we believe to be scientific truth, but no one knows for sure what the scientific truth really is. We do not know if immunity is really conferred on those who have recovered from COVID 19 and we do not know if there is an antibody level that can be considered protective.
Testing people for the virus remains our best line of attack so that we can understand where the disease is prevalent and how much effort should be put into quarantine and related efforts. But testing needs to continue for the long term, not the short term, because we still do not know the long term effects of the virus causing COVID 19.
One possible scenario that could play out worries me a great deal because the only solution would be a vaccine. The common cold is a coronavirus and most people do not develop immunity to it but tend to experience colds from time to time on a mostly unpredictable re-occurring basis.
I heard a credible researcher talking about the possibility that COVID 19 could behave in manner similar to the cold virus, meaning that people could develop antibodies that provide a small amount of protection but not enough protection from a reinfection that causes clinical symptoms. She also said that it might be possible that people who have recovered from COVID 19 could become re-infected but never show symptoms and still be able to spread the disease.
This kind of scenario may be the musings of a blind person on an elephant. We just do not know what the truth is right now and that kind of uncertainty scares all of us. I too am feeling like one of those blind people and I am starting to believe that this thing may be much bigger than we know and that it may last for a lot longer than any of the sighted experts can predict.
What we don't know
Thanks for writing this. I’m also worried about what we don’t know. It seems like a fair amount. I’m also worried because governments are worried, worried enough to shut down the economy. That’s so unusual that a year ago I would have said it couldn’t happen.