Coronavirus – How Much of A Threat?

Blog#18-2/28/20

CORONAVIRUS
HOW MUCH OF A THREAT?
By Richard Davis

We are being bombarded with information, misinformation, warnings and all kinds of reports about the spreading coronavirus. How do you know which information is factual and how do you know what to do to be able to deal with an outbreak of the virus in your community or in your home? Should you be concerned, or is there just too much fearmongering and hype to take this new disease outbreak seriously?

The only accurate, factual and up-to-date information is being provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID which is part of the CDC) and infectious disease specialists and clinicians who work for state health departments throughout the U.S.

The most unreliable sources of information about coronavirus are from politicians, policy bureaucrats and media talking heads. Unless a person is representing WHO, CDC or a state agency, or is an infectious disease expert, then whatever they say should not be trusted. It’s that simple.

One of the most important pieces of information people need to know is why coronavirus is being taken so seriously when other communicable diseases continue to spread throughout the world. According to the CDC, 10,000 Americans have died from this year’s flu, 19 million people have come down with the flu and 180,000 people have been hospitalized for treatment of the flu and its complications.

While those numbers would seem to make coronavirus less of a threat when there have been 81,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide and 2761 deaths (mostly in China) and 90 cases in the U.S., there are other considerations beyond currently available figures. Also keep in mind that expert reports about coronavirus characterize a moving target that is constantly evolving.

One the most important reasons why infectious disease experts are so concerned about the spread of coronavirus is because of its mortality rate compared to the flu. The mortality rate for the flu in the U.S. is 0.095% while two percent who have contracted coronavirus worldwide have died. Those numbers are low, but what also worries infectious disease experts is how easily coronavirus seems to spread.

These experts do not yet know the exact mode of transmission of coronavirus. If it is spread by droplet transmission, as are cold viruses, it means that when people sneeze, cough, drip or exhale large size droplets loaded with virus will settle within three feet. Transmission occurs with contact of surfaces where droplets land and can enter a person’s eyes, nose or mouth. That is why handwashing is so important.

With the airborne mode of transmission, in diseases such as measles and chickenpox, smaller particles become airborne and stay suspended in the air and more easily enter a person’s respiratory tract. The CDC has indicated they think coronavirus is primarily spread by the airborne route, accounting for its rapid spread.

“Two percent case fatality is still a tough case fatality when you compare it to the case fatality for the seasonal flu or other things,” Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, told reporters Wednesday. “A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it,” he added. “And this is the issue at the moment. We don’t fully understand it.”

Infectious disease experts writing in the Journal of the American Medical Association looked at the records of 44,672 people with confirmed cases of coronavirus. They found that 36,160, or 81% had mild cases, 14% had severe cases and five percent of cases were considered critical. They also found a mortality rate of 2.3%, meaning of 44,672, 1023 died as a result of the coronavirus.

Keep in mind that any figures presented are simply a point in time and no one knows what the percentages will be in the future and no one knows how the new virus will affect populations of different countries.

People also want to know how to protect themselves if they are at risk of being exposed to the coronavirus. A vaccine is being worked on but will not be available for about a year and that means that it will have little or no impact on the current outbreak but may help with future outbreaks. Coronavirus symptoms are similar to any acute respiratory illness, including the flu, and the only way to accurately diagnose it is through testing.

Basic respiratory disease transmission precautions will provide the best protection for most people. Those most at risk of having a severe or critical case of coronavirus are people with weakened immune systems and people who suffer from chronic respiratory illnesses.

Frequent handwashing remains one of the best methods to prevent transmission of a respiratory disease as well as containing individual coughing. Most experts will tell you that face masks are not recommended for the general population. The only masks that will prevent transmission of respiratory illness are those that are individually fitted and that form an airtight seal. Those kinds of masks are best suited for use by health care professionals working within health care institutions.

If coronavirus begins to spread throughout the U.S. the best protection that can be afforded to people is to follow the above recommendations, maintain your health and keep away from gatherings of large numbers of people.