As Brattleboro’s Future’s Committee begins to form, it might be good to look at a few things predicted for the near future. One of them is robots.
The current path with robotics is to replace a majority of human workers wherever and whenever possible with robots. Very soon, they will be cheaper and better skilled than humans in a wide variety of tasks, from farming to surgery. Foxconn, maker of iPhones and such, has announced already plans to buy 10,000 robots to assist in production at a cost of about $25,000 each.
There are machines now or in development to replace store clerks, soldiers, fry and burger makers, nurses, law clerks, house painters, building inspectors, rescue workers, astronauts, babysitters, valets, plumbers, athletes, and factory employees, to name a few. Search for “robot news” and you’ll find plenty of examples of advancements toward all of these goals.
It won’t be unusual to see robots working in town in the coming decades. It also won’t be unusual to see human workers replaced by machines.
Google’s Larry Page recently said that most people would like to work less. “If you really think about the things that you need to make yourself happy – housing, security, opportunities for your kids – anthropologists have been identifying these things. It’s not that hard for us to provide those things. The amount of resources we need to do that, the amount of work that actually needs to go into that is pretty small. I’m guessing less than 1-percent at the moment. So the idea that everyone needs to work frantically to meet people’s needs is just not true,” he told people at the KV CEO Summit.
But everyone needs to pay their bills. And not everyone can service robots.
At first, robots won’t be fully trusted. They will work alongside humans, or do simple tasks. Their costs will drop and features will grow, and soon fewer humans will be required to work.
There will be opportunities for those who can afford to purchase and maintain robots to work for them. It will be quite easy for those with resources to plan new businesses when the cost of labor is fixed and depreciates, without concern of laziness, sickness, vacations, benefits, or human error.
Those without the resources may find themselves unable to compete with robots for work. With no person to confront, there might be acts of sabotage against robots for “taking our jobs.” (These will be recorded by surveillance robots and sent automatically to the police for the dispatch of a driverless police cruiser.)
Early adopters will have the money to spend on a walking, talking personal assistant – a supercharged iPhone with legs and arms. There will be specialty models to help with home care, education, and the tasks of a servant. Prices will drop, and upgrades will be available. They will become cool, status symbols for the upwardly mobile.
Trouble will come for the recently-robotically-unemployed. With no income, no ability to employ robots for money-making, and no possibility of ever being retrained to compete, each will become a burden on society. Each will need assistance, or will be left to fend for themselves. We may create a class of “unessentials.”
Writing all of this seems like writing science fiction, but the coming replacement of workers by robots is very real. It would be wise to begin contemplating how they will be used and how they will offset human labor, and income.
