Blog# 185- 12/31/23
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR STRATEGY
By Richard Davis
The Israel Hamas war has pushed both sides into unchartered territory. Most of what is happening violates not only rules of engagement but basic humanitarian principles. Israel has more firepower and they are using it in what appears to be a chaotic and indiscriminate way. In other words, if Israel has a battle plan it is hard to see what it is. To the rest of the world it looks like they are simply acting out of vengeance and killing as many Palestinians as possible.
I believe that Hamas could possibly be executing a well thought out battle plan that could have long-range implications for the Middle East while Israel seems to be developing plans on a day to day basis. Here is what I think Hamas could be doing.
I imagine that a few years ago Hamas leaders sat down and tried to figure out how they could destroy the state of Israel. Their stated goals include killing all Jews so it makes sense they would develop a battle plan to do as much damage as possible, in a physical sense as well as in a public relations sense.
They knew they needed to do something to Israel that was so atrocious that the response by Israel would be predictable. In other words, they wanted Israel to act out of vengeance and bomb the hell out of Gaza while killing thousands of Palestinians. Hamas does not value individual human lives and they are willing to use their own people as pawns if it advances their cause.
Hamas pulled off the most deadly attack on Israeli citizens in the history of the country and it resulted in the kind of response Hamas was looking for. Hamas was able to kill 1200 Jews in a way that forced Israel to retaliate disproportionally. Exactly what Hamas was hoping for.
Hamas may have made the calculation that such an Israeli response would harm their image and standing with the United States and many of its allies. Right now that is what is happening. There are rumblings in the U.S. congress to make monetary support of Israel contingent on them developing a more focused battle plan that spares civilian Palestinian lives while still allowing them to go after Hamas.
World opinion of Israel has certainly taken a hit and that I believe was a calculated outcome that Hamas was hoping for. If Israel is weakened then Hamas has a better chance of doing more damage.
Taking hostages may work as a bargaining chip for Hamas but the longer Israel is not able to free hostages the more unstable Israel becomes, fueling protests to oust Netanyahu. Internal protests work to Hamas’s advantage creating the appearance of internal chaos.
If you look at a map of the Middle East it is clear that Israel is surrounded by Arab countries, some more friendly to Israel and some less. But the potential exists for all of them to create an alliance and destroy the Israeli state.
Hezbollah is attacking Israeli in the north and thousands of Israelis have been evacuated to the south. Houthi rebels, believed to be backed by Iran, have been running roughshod over Yemen and they began sending missiles into the Red Sea on October 7 as a show of support for Hamas. The Houthis have vowed to block shipping going to Israel. U.S. ships have been able to deflect most of the missiles being sent into the Red Sea but the Houthi attacks continue and world-wide shipping is taking a hit while some cargo ships are going the long route around the Red Sea.
According to Reuters, “The United States is assembling a multinational naval coalition to help safeguard commercial traffic from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi movement. On Thursday, the Pentagon said more than 20 countries had now agreed to participate in the group, known as Operation Prosperity Guardian. Some countries have not confirmed their participation, however, while others have said their efforts to help protect Red Sea commercial traffic will be as part of existing naval agreements rather than the new U.S.-led operation.”
The Middle East is in turmoil and the potential exists for a new world war. Israel is the most vulnerable country in all of this mess and if they are weakened and unable to deflect attacks on three fronts it is possible Israel could be either irreparably weakened or become a subject of a foreign power.
Israel needs to stop killing Palestinians indiscriminately and they need to develop a focused battle plan. They need to show the rest of the world that they value human life more than Hamas, but so far that is not the case.
