The attached jpg file documents inexplicable anomalies between the presidential election results and exit polls, based on screen shots of news broadcasts taken election night by Jonathan Simon of Code Red.
According to the exit polls, which were conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBSNews, CNN, Fox News and NBC News, Clinton won four key battleground states (NC, PA, WI, and FL) in the 2016 Presidential Election that she went on to lose in the computerized vote counts. With these states Clinton would have won the Electoral College with a count of 302 versus 205 for Trump. Clinton also won the national exit poll by 3.2%, according to the exit polls, but only received a narrow lead in the reported vote count.
Exit polls were conducted in 28 states. In 23 states the discrepancies between the exit polls and the vote count favored Trump. In 13 of these states the discrepancies favoring Trump exceeded the margin of error of the state.
Those who understand exit polls know that they are the gold standard for determining the fairness and accuracy of an election. They were until the 2000 presidential race, anyway, when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush.
Similar anomalies have been reported this week for the key U.S. Senate races that resulted in the maintaining of control of the Senate for the Republicans.
If anyone has information on exit polling conducted in Vermont, please report it in the comments below this post.
Note that the optical scanners used to tabulate votes in Brattleboro, and much of Vermont, are owned by private companies, the algorithms that they use to report the results are deemed proprietary and off limits to citizen inspection.
For more information, and the source of this data: http://markcrispinmiller.com/ and http://codered2014.com/
For information on persistent electronic voting since 2000 fraud do a search for Bob Fitrakis.
Palast gives a comprehensive and well-documented perspective of other orchestrated voter fraud. The 2016 election could not be predicted
accurately; many voters were deleted from voting lists in key
states as part of a Koch brothers funded “Interstate Crosscheck” — a system of voter disenfranchisement used by as many as 30 states.
Your Two Minutes of 'Hey, Wait'
Thanks for posting, it’s grist for the mill. I think all evidence of statistical anomaly can be understood in the light of an oppositional personality that was cultivated and stoked in this cycle. “We don’t need your stinking polls…” Voter disenfranchisment is a slighly different matter, but comes under the same agenda–to gain power.
What I find harder to understand is how people used to install what will be an unprecedented kleptocracy, and stand to gain nothing themselves by the gambit, can be made to go along so willingly. My only explanation is the quid pro quo here, “You put us in charge, and we will allow you to vent all sorts of hate, and give legitamacy to your most base instincts.”
The greater- maybe greatest- tragedy is that we need to attend to larger issues of dwinding global resources, and enviornmental havoc. This division, and the ‘useful chaos’ it spawns, puts that task further out of reach.
In the old days, everyone went to the polls
There’s a lot of early voting going on that exit polls might miss, unless they are standing by one’s mailbox.
It’s been an interesting week. People ready to feel good about the world suddenly see darkness. The darkness was there the day before, but some weren’t looking or didn’t want to see it.
Voter suppression was a big issue/red flag a couple of years ago, and it was said at the time it could be used to tip elections. How many of us fought it, vs how many of us had other things to do?
I recall having a hard time getting any activist pulse in the last 8 years. “Liking” something on a corporate web site isn’t activism, and many were content with a steady stream of “compromises” out of Washington.
The US voted for change in 2008. Things didn’t really change. The US voted for change again in 2016, and the Republicans offered up the only candidate under that mantle. Democrats threw change under the bus in favor of playing it safe and not losing the hard won battles of the last 8 years. Problem is, playing it safe was probably part of the reason it was all lost. This wasn’t a year to offer incrementals.
change is right
Trump single handedly destroyed both the Republican and Democrat ruling classes (Bushes and Clintons.)
As for any polls, I don’t believe any of them and consequently, didn’t even bother reading this post, but rather the comments. Never in my life have I watched the media and pollsters get it so wrong for so long.
By the way, I see Vermont has a Republican governor, is everybody screaming the sky is going to fall?
Afoot
Some of you know that Will Stomp and fishboy and I have disagreed in the the past, but I read both this piece and comments. They are both keen fellows. Whatever is going on, I tell you now that something is afoot in this nation.
And, I don’t like it at all.
Consider this. Did the man who claimed that the woman was using cocaine was using cocaine (or an amphetamine) himself?
Was the man who claimed that the election was rigged against him, the very one who had the billions and influence to rig the election himself?
I tell you now, I don’t like it at all.
Game within a game
Under the rules of this particular contraption we call[ed] democracy, nothing is binding until Dec. 19 when electors cast their ballots. Just sayin…
democrazy
There is an effort to get electors to go against their pledge. They rarely do it, and some states have rules to ignore their vote if they do anything other than what is expected of them, but it is a strange year.
One things electors do, which people might not remember, is cast one vote for a president, and one vote for a vice-president. If this were my chess game, I’d aim to get electors to switch one of their votes but not both, to muck up any legal challenges after about doing one’s job.
But I’d prefer Democrats to realize quickly that the future is with the progressive wing of the party, not the old-school, and they should get out there and start helping poor people again.
The purpose of the Electoral College...
is to provide a check on mob rule, and prevent an unqualified person from being elected president.
As Alexander Hamilton writes in “The Federalist Papers,” the Constitution is designed to ensure “that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications.” The point of the Electoral College is to preserve “the sense of the people,” while at the same time ensuring that a president is chosen “by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice.”
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/02/the-reason-for-the-electoral-college/
In other words, the job if the Electoral College is to prevent a demagogue from becoming president, regardless of the vote tallies. (And in this case, the demagogue had fewer votes than his opponent.)
Twenty-four states have laws requiring their electors to vote in accord with the popular vote in their state. (Penalties in those states for an “unfaithful elector” is a fine.) For the rest of the states and the District of Columbia, electors are totally free to vote as they see fit. In respect to the United States Constitution, the reason we have Electors is to make sure that a lunatic like Donald Trump never becomes president.
The real question, then, is whether the Electors will do their job.
Another facet of the farce
Amidst the explanations and rationalizations…As naysayers fall in line, and olive branches are offered…
http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/
More Data
Strip…
https://www.youtube.com/embed/kg2gCgFMBOg
& Flip:
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-video/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQCkjhO8Eq0
Even More
“Something Stinks When Exit Polls and Official Counts Don’t Match”
A discussion with an exit poll expert reveals an electoral house of cards.
By Steven Rosenfeld / AlterNet
An interview with Jonathan Simon of Code Red
November 14, 2016
http://www.alternet.org/something-stinks-when-exit-polls-and-official-counts-dont-match
“Media exit polls in last Tuesday’s election suggested Democrats were going to win the White House and the Senate, yet the reported vote counts brought a GOP landslide. While theories abound about what happened, election integrity activists say the exit poll discrepancy underscores the need for a far more transparent and accountable process. AlterNet’s Steven Rosenfeld interviewed Jonathan Simon, a longtime exit poll sleuth and author of Code Red: Computerized Election Theft and the New American Century. Simon explains why exit polls are a critical clue in the breakdown of the voting process.”
See the link for the full story/interview on AlterNet.
Spinning wheels - weak on corporate law and election law
I wish I had time to read and watch all of these links to understand Exit Polls and Official Counts better. With four years ahead of us this likely will be my last election. Still, I’ve always had a sense that exit polls were after the fact. Whatever, the deal is I might try to go deeper into this but I have too many writing projects and storylines (fiction and nonfiction) now, that I can’t possibly finish.
There are, however, two areas most American’s are really weak on, corporate law and election law, especially the electoral college.. (Law in general, too…).
If you all or a national committee of dedicates can’t really overcome that weakness, they’ve got you man, because the idea that’s it’s up to the people (voters) closely resembles a myth. The rest might be too much like spinning wheels election upon election..
Yet Even More - a comprehensive analysis
“Hillary Clinton has won the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election by well over a million votes. But her impending defeat in the Electoral College comes with familiar signs that yet another American election has been stripped and flipped. This article presents a comprehensive overview of how it was done, and a brief summary of how our electoral system needs to be changed to make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
Full article: How the GOP Flipped and Stripped Yet Another American Election
By Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman, Reader Supported News
20 November 16
http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/40381-how-the-gop-flipped-and-stripped-yet-another-american-election
Well worth reading
As informative as this article is, I was particularly gratified by the comments. Even people who strongly disagreed, engaged in intelligent dialogue, with little sign of the personal acrimony so common in comment sections in general, and which has been an occupational hazard or anyone posting on ibrattleboro.
I wonder how this http://readersupportednews.org site has been able come so much closer to the ideal of citizen journalism. I value ibrattleboro and hope we can improve the quality of the dialogue.
This is interesting!
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/hillary-clinton-challenge-results/index.html
Great Find, on CNN no less
Great find, SK-B.
“The group informed John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, and Marc Elias, the campaign’s general counsel, that Clinton received 7% fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic voting machines, which the group said could have been hacked.”
The group includes J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society. Michigan was flipped.
Also see this article in New York magazine about the work of voting-rights attorney John Bonifaz, who hails from Amherst, MA:
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/activists-urge-hillary-clinton-to-challenge-election-results.html
“The Clinton camp is running out of time to challenge the election. According to one of the activists, the deadline in Wisconsin to file for a recount is Friday; in Pennsylvania, it’s Monday; and Michigan is next Wednesday. Whether Clinton will call for a recount remains unclear. The academics so far have only a circumstantial case that would require not just a recount but a forensic audit of voting machines. Also complicating matters, a senior Clinton adviser said, is that the White House, focused on a smooth transfer of power, does not want Clinton to challenge the election result. Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri did not respond to a request for comment. But some Clinton allies are intent on pushing the issue. This afternoon, Huma Abedin’s sister Heba encouraged her Facebook followers to lobby the Justice Department to audit the 2016 vote. “Call the DOJ…and tell them you want the votes audited,” she wrote. “Even if it’s busy, keep calling.”
But
Nate Silver says nothing looks unusual in the voting data… when one runs the data with controls for race, education levels, demographics. It can all be accounted for, he says.
He says claims of rigged results in Wisconsin aren’t backed up by facts or data. Says same in PA and MI (MI uses paper ballots, so how could it be hacked? he asks.)
So, we’ll see…
Who or what to believe?
It would be ideal if the evidence could speak for itself to an astute observer. Unfortunately technical matters are so complex that we generally end up having to decide which expert to believe. This is often true with medicine and health as well.
As a matter of political strategy, even if there were a credible chance that the election results could be reversed by a challenge: Can you image what a disaster being president would be for Hillary Clinton if she were able to successfully challenge the results? The Republican campaign to discredit and undermine Obama’s presidency would look like Patty-Cakes be comparison.
It may be that Hillary would be better off now to leave the ball in Trump’s court to try to deliver on his assurance that he can bring back good jobs and make America great again.
It seems that the last time the Republicans actually won a presidential vote was Poppa Bush in 1988. Elections of 2000, 2004, and 2016 were stolen through voter suppression, and possibly outright fraud. Voter suppression is not always as direct as expurgating legitimate voters from the rolls: In states controlled by Republicans, they can suppress voters by having enough voting facilities in mostly Republican areas so that voting takes 5 minutes, while in predominantly Democratic areas, long lines of voters stand in the rain for hours.
Oh for the good ol’ days when Democrats were better than Republicans at stealing elections!
Beyond the “useful chaos”
Maybe with all this back and forth it might be useful (and, perhaps, grounding) to quote Spinoza (our spinoza) in the first comment. ”The greater- maybe greatest- tragedy is that we need to attend to larger issues of dwindling global resources, and environmental havoc. This division, and the ‘useful chaos’ it spawns, puts that task further out of reach.”
This electoral exercise is certainly divisive and chaotic.
I agree with Chris that “claims of rigged results aren’t backed up by facts or data.”
Even so, I can’t remember (or don’t know) when or if the 538 “electors” who meet on Dec 19 to confirm the Electoral College ever flipped the election.
Every election has anomalies. Maybe it’s time build a new race track.
Jill Stein to request recount
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38090185
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/23/politics/election-hack-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html
According to CNN:
She launched her effort after computer scientists reportedly told Clinton campaign officials that the election may have indeed been rigged — in Trump’s favor.
However, her website said the recount attempt was “not intended to help Hillary Clinton,” adding: “These recounts are part of an election integrity movement to attempt to shine a light on just how untrustworthy the U.S. election system is.”
Clinton Campaign Joins Stein In Recount Request
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38118852
From Jill Stein's Campaign
Friends,
An epic battle is underway for a voting system we can trust – that is accurate, secure and just! #Recount2016 is charging ahead. Even the federal courts have chimed in to support the recount as a defense of the right to vote.
Thanks to over 10,000 volunteers and 150,000 small donors, the recount is pushing forward in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – defying political blockades, bureaucratic hurdles, and financial intimidation.
With small donations from folks like you, we have already raised an incredible $7.2 million dollars for this extraordinary effort.
But we need your help for the final stretch. We have to raise an additional $2.3 million dollars – a total of $9.5 million – to have enough firepower to prevail.
Please go to http://jill2016.com/recount and donate today!
We have great victories to build on in this David-and-Goliath battle for the civil and constitutional rights of all Americans. But the costs – for state filing fees, legal fees, operations, staff, and to keep the public informed – are rising fast, as Trump and his allies wage “lawfare” against our fight for democracy. Click here for a breakdown of our current budget, and help us continue the fight for voters’ rights today!
In a dramatic midnight ruling issued Monday, federal judge Mark Goldsmith overrode the delays caused by frivolous lawsuits of Trump and his ally, Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette, granted our request to begin the recount in Michigan, saying:
“The fundamental right invoked by [the recount] — the right to vote, and to have that vote conducted fairly and counted accurately — is the bedrock of our Nation.”
We also scored a huge court victory Tuesday when the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld this same court order.
We’re gaining momentum in the courts, but we can only keep the work going with your support. Please click here to donate to #Recount2016 today to get us over the final hurdle!
This recount is not just about counting the votes. We are fighting Trump and the Michigan GOP in a battle that goes to the very heart of the struggle for voting rights in communities of color. Donate now to stand up for election justice and integrity.
The attention brought by the recount campaign in Michigan is already raising red flags for the widespread disenfranchisement of voters of color in what amounts to a modern Jim Crow-type election system.
At stake are over 75,000 “undervotes” – ballots that are filled out except the vote for President – many of which are concentrated in communities of color in the Detroit area.
This unprecedented number of blank ballots may actually represent errors in the optical scanners that count the votes. According to a U.S. Civil Rights Commission report, voters of color are 900% more likely to have their votes misread or simply tossed out by human error or by badly maintained and poorly calibrated machines in underserved communities.
The malfunction of 87 decade-old optical scanner machines in Detroit on Election Day is an example of this Jim Crow-type injustice. These machine errors that lead to voter suppression are commonplace in underserved communities of color. But they can only be identified if we recount all the votes!
Trump and his pal Bill Schuette are doing everything in their power to prevent the recount from going forward, and examining the potential voter suppression.
If you want to help protect the right to vote for communities of color—and build the case for a stronger democracy, please pitch in to keep this fight going!
We are fighting multiple legal battles against Trump and his cronies in all three states:
In Pennsylvania, we are going to federal court to fight for a statewide recount on constitutional grounds, in the face of an outrageous $1.1 million bond that was imposed on the voters filing for a statewide recount. We are seeking an injunction for a hand recount and forensic analysis of the unaccountable, paperless touch-screen machines.
In Wisconsin, we are fighting for a hand count of paper ballots throughout the state – what a judge called the “gold standard” for verifying the vote – after Republican Governor Scott Walker’s henchmen on the Board of Elections tripled the cost of the recount, charging $2.4 million over the original estimate of $1.1 million (based on the last statewide recount).
In Michigan, we are fighting Trump and Schuette tooth and nail to make sure the hard-fought, hard-won right to vote is honored, and that the voices of the people in communities of color are heard and respected.
We must not back down from this fight.Donald Trump – and the entrenched, corrupt political establishment that backs him – is hell-bent on shutting down our fight for voting justice, making it as complicated and expensive as possible by using every legal trick in the book to try to stop us.
The recount is a critical first step towards real democracy. We must also end voter suppression through voter ID laws and Interstate Crosscheck. We must have open debates to fully inform and empower voters. We must liberate our votes from fear through Ranked Choice Voting, which allows you to rank your choices and if your first choice loses, your vote is automatically reassigned to your second choice. We must abolish the Electoral College and move to a national popular vote.
With your help we can seize this historic moment to create a voting system we can trust, starting with counting every vote and making every vote count.
Go to http://jill2016.com/recount and donate today!
_______________________________________________________________________________
Sources:
“Federal Court Ruling Protects Jill Stein’s Michigan Recount, Despite State Decision,” Huffington Post, December 6, 2016 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/federal-court-jill-stein-michigan-recount_us_58475ce8e4b0d0df1836f54a
“Judge Orders Michigan Presidential Recount to Begin at Noon Monday,” Detroit News, December 5, 2016 http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2016/12/04/judge-holds-sunday-hearing-michigan-recount-suit/94952646/
“Huge Federal Court Victory in MI – Recount Goes Forward,” Stein Campaign Press Release, December 6, 2016 http://www.jill2016.com/huge_mi_victory
“Explaining the Michigan Recount of Vote,” Oakland Press, December 1, 2016 http://www.theoaklandpress.com/general-news/20161201/explaining-the-michigan-recount-of-vote
“Ethnic Votes Stolen in Crucial States Help Fix US Election for Trump,” Greg Palast, November 16, 2016 http://www.gregpalast.com/ethnic-votes-stolen-crucial-states-help-fix-us-election-trump-reveals-greg-palast/
“Broken Machines Could Throw Michigan Recount Into Chaos,” The Guardian, December 6, 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/05/us-election-recount-michigan-donald-trump-hillary-clinton
“In Michigan: Trump, GOP Politicians Launch Full-Scale Attack to Obstruct Voters’ Civil, Constitutional Rights,” Stein Campaign Press Release, December 6, 2016 http://www.jill2016.com/michigan_trump_gop_politicians_launch_full_scale_attack
“Stein/Baraka Condemn Interstate Crosscheck And Other Voter Suppression Schemes,” Stein/Baraka Campaign Press Release, October 3, 2016 http://www.jill2016.com/interstate_crosscheck
Jill Stein
http://www.jill2016.com/
Our Operators are Standing by
This amount, as big as it seems to wage slaves, is chicken feed to Soros, Mark Cuban or Hollywood heavyweights. Why are they pitching it like a PBS fund-drive … “Save Democracy today, and get free tote bag…”
My Guess
1: Because Soros, Cuban, etc. have not contributed, and may well have no interest in contributing to a campaign that could stir things up the way that this recount might.
2: Because such pitches work. Ask Bernie.
The bigger question, to me, is why smart and caring people would treat this issue in a diminutive manner.
Oh, bother
https://medium.com/@ChrisSautter/how-to-save-the-wisconsin-recount-8e385db8fca5#.h2ydewj9e
I see your question as a somewhat simple binary. Are you willing to fight for Democracy, or Not? Put another way.. Do you or don’t you object to authoritarian rule?
I think most people in this country have little understanding of fascism. We understand inconvenience, but have less exposure to totalitarianism. There are a majority of voters who are on the verge of accepting an illegitimate outcome. For the second time. With Gore, I always thought the decision should not have been his. The people were robbed, the people should have demanded redress. Instead there was War, economic collapse, so much waste and pointless division and death.
What else needs to be said? Lesson not learned. It’s complex, and yet, plain as day.
Simple Binary
Can a ‘why?’ question ever be answered with ‘yes’ or ‘no?’
Putting words in someone’s mouth, reducing their thoughts to simplistic dualities.
Diminution?
Thanks for the Sautter piece. Always good to hear from people down in the trenches.
Sorry
I don’t see it as diminishing or putting words in your mouth. I was attempting to engage. Which I thought was the point of a forum.
WHY is it dark in here?
-Is it nighttime?(Y or N)
-Are the lights broken?(Y or N)
I’m not really interested in arguing with you. I’m concerned with: PEOTUS: no press conferences, donor appointments, suppressing dissent, spreading lies, conflict of interest, anti-science, anti-democracy, anti-secularism..The playbooks for this type of behavior have been written. More should read up.
Hasta Luego
Will a recount fix the electoral system?
I’ve been thinking a lot about this recount effort and whether or not I think it’s a good idea. Don’t get me wrong — I do think it’s being done from the highest motivations on the part of its supporters who believe that the country needs to be saved from Donald Trump. But deep down, I’m not so certain that the country even wants to be saved.
I also thought about how I would feel if the situation were reversed. Suppose my candidate — a lefty like Bernie say — narrowly won election as Trump just did. Let’s say the election was so weird that my guy didn’t win the popular vote but only the electoral college. Now let’s say that the losing side decides that my candidate’s win was illegitimate and undemocratic and they mount a recount effort. Am I happy? Am I saying, “Whatever’s best for democracy.” Let’s say the recount effort of multiple states succeeds in unseating my candidate. Am I ever going to think that was fair? Will I ever support the new winner’s government?
Another way of saying, it all depends on which side you’re on how you feel about this stuff, and that can change back and forth depending on the year — one year the Dems may be disadvantaged, another year it might be the republicans.
If we really think that Trump or the Russians used fraud to steal the elections then this recount is important. If there was no election fraud, people will be less forgiving.
My final thought on this is that there are two issues in play here: alleged election fraud AND a “broken” election system. They would need to be addressed using different means. A recount might uncover fraud but it won’t fix the system. Fixing the system would require campaign finance reform and a real analysis of the Electoral College (which may turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing — we don’t understand it well enough at the moment to know).
Throw the hanky
This is a good snapshot analysis. But I think by any measure the system is clearly broken. Whether you factor foreign intervention, insane costs of a campaign, corporate and blind CPAC, broken voting machines, gerrymandering and voter suppression measures…it really is a fiasco…Then add disinformation…It make you wonder why we accept this.
WE COULD FIX THIS.. It’s very easy to keep track of bank records. The ATM rarely conveniently forgets to give us our money, or come after us when there is an overdraw.
Or look at this from our sports obsession angle. Not everybody ‘likes’ instant replay reffing. But on the whole, its not hard to see that, even though not perfect it does even the field. There are still too-close-to call plays, but with deep review- and fairly instantly-many a biased or missed call is overturned.
We could get it better, maybe not perfect, but far from the travesty it is now. Why don’t we is the question.