New polling from a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll show Sanders within a margin of error with Clinton in Iowa (45% to her 48%), and show him leading her in New Hampshire (50% to her 46%).
Sanders beats or ties the top Republicans in those states. He beats Trump and Cruz by 19 points in New Hampshire.
Clinton would trail Cruz or Rubio in New Hampshire, but would beat Trump in either NH or Iowa. She does least well against Rubio, losing by 12 points.
Cruz beats Trump by a small margin in Iowa. Rubio and Carson are competing for third place there.
Trump beats Cruz in NH.
When asked about second choice, Republicans chose Cruz in Iowa and Rubio in New Hampshire.
Republicans say national security and terrorism are the biggest issues. Democrats cite jobs and the economy.
Take all of this with a big grain of salt, and feel free to use the comments to explain why it is all hogwash.
DNC Hiding Democrats
There was a Democratic debate/forum last night. Didn’t hear about it until today. What’s wrong with the DNC and major media? I’m actually somewhat aware and looking for this sort of programming and didn’t hear a thing about it in the news.
Anyone looking for a good conversation about civil rights, economic injustice and voting would do well to search for Killer Mike’s interview with Sanders. Don’t be mislead by Killer Mike’s name – he’s a big teddy bear of a guy, very smart, who has a fascinating conversation with Sanders in a barbershop.
Looks like Cruz and Rubio are the current GOP favorites. Trump seems to be hitting a wall this week.
Of course, it can all change in a heartbeat.
New Polls out Show Sanders Leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire
Sanders is now leading in Iowa by 5 points and in New Hampshire by 14 points according to two of the latest polls: “Poll: Sanders moves ahead of Clinton by 5 in Iowa,” Politico.com, 1/12/2016
“Bernie Sanders notched another polling victory against Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, this one in Iowa, where he now leads the former secretary of state according to the results of the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
The Vermont senator picked up 49 percent support from likely Democratic caucus-goers, while Clinton earned 44 percent. In last month’s Quinnipiac survey, Clinton earned 51 percent, while Sanders came in second with 40 percent. In this poll, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley took 4 percent, with 3 percent remaining undecided.
Sanders opened up a 14-point lead over Clinton in New Hampshire in the latest Monmouth University poll released earlier in the morning.”
link to full article: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/qpoll-iowa-dems-217625
Official results of the poll from Quinnipiac University’s website:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2314
Meanwhile, crowds in Iowa are going crazy for Sanders, and are, at best, cordial with Clinton.
(New York Times, “Hillary Clinton Races to Close Enthusiasm Gap With Bernie Sanders in Iowa,” 1/12/2016)
“Iowa Democrats are displaying far less passion for Hillary Clinton than for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont three weeks before the presidential caucuses, creating anxiety inside the Clinton campaign as she scrambles to energize supporters and to court wavering voters.
The enthusiasm gap spilled abundantly into view in recent days, from the cheering crowds and emotional outpourings that greeted Mr. Sanders, and in interviews with more than 50 Iowans at campaign stops for both candidates.
Voters have mobbed Mr. Sanders at events since Friday, some jumping over chairs to shake his hand, snap a selfie or thank him for speaking about the middle class. “Did you get to touch him?” asked one woman who could not get close enough after an event here on Saturday.”
link to full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/us/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-supporters.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
538
I noticed that some pollsters from the 538 staff went to Iowa to see what real people were up to. They seemed impressed by Sanders’ campaign there, and wondered where the media was at the packed event.
I was enjoying the lack of
I was enjoying the lack of negative campaigning, up to now. Seems the gloves are coming off on both sides.
On the Democratic side, the Clinton folks are taking wild swipes at Sanders – I saw one that accused him of wanting to make Medicare and medicaid and Social Security into big government programs, and Clinton was against it. That was followed by the Clinton team changing it to say he wants to destroy Social Security and other programs. Yeah, right… Sanders against Social Security. That should go over well as an attack, eh?
They also called him unelectable last week, and his poll numbers surged.
On the Republican side, everyone is taking swipes at Trump. I saw one planted story about how all the other candidates were normal, but he was weird for going home in his private (i.e., out-of-touch) jet to his penthouse overlooking Central park. Yeah right, Trump is rich! That should go over well as an attack, eh?
I’m sort of waiting to see how Jeb! bows out. He seems to be being pushed to the door by the GOP establishment, politely.
Negative campaigning
Reading posts today on “Information Clearing House”, I was not surprised to see someone calling Bernie a “Communist”.
Balanced?
I just saw another commentator calling him a “Fascist”. Can we consider the scales balanced?
Politician's Trickery
I would not trust Bernie Sanders. He is just pretending to be a Communist in order to get votes.
Madam President
Hillary Clinton will be the next president.
Mrs. President
Mr. Mike, I am inclined to agree with you. My biggest curiosity is who will be vice president. Of course, sometimes being wrong ain’t so bad, but there you have it.
Hillary Clinton's Lead in 2008 vs. 2016
Hillary Clinton’s national lead is slipping faster in 2016 than it did in 2008. (January 14, 2016)
link to article from the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/14/hillary-clintons-national-lead-is-slipping-faster-in-2016-than-it-did-in-2008/
I think I made an error
I think I made an error in jumping into the prediction discussion. Too many of us fall for the “media polls” game. It’s not that I fall for them myself because I rarely look at them, but from time-to-time I find myself too willing to comment on other comments made by people who do follow the polls. I will try to restraint myself from commenting in future “poll” postings.
“Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself.”
~Mark Twain
Deep polling
Based on deep polling, from a variety of sources, come January 2017, President Sanders.
GOP vs Clinton
Based on the latest GOP debate, I’d say they all want to run against Clinton.
Latest Poll
“Poll Finds Hillary Clinton Candidate Most Americans Want To Have 8-Ounce Glass Of Tap Water With”
(News in Brief, January 5, 2016)
link to article: http://www.theonion.com/article/poll-finds-hillary-clinton-candidate-most-american-52113
Things you may have forgotten about Hillary
Let us never forget……………………………..
Amazing To Me How Much I Had Forgotten!
When Bill Clinton was president, he allowed Hillary to assume authority over a health care reform. Even after [her] threats and intimidation, she couldn’t even get a vote in a democratic controlled congress. This fiasco cost the American taxpayers about $13 million in cost for studies, promotion, and other efforts.
Then President Clinton gave Hillary authority over selecting a female attorney general. Her first two selections were Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood – both were forced to withdraw their names from consideration.
Next she chose Janet Reno – husband Bill described her selection as “my worst mistake.” Some may not remember that Reno made the decision to gas David Koresh and the Branch Davidian religious sect in Waco, Texas resulting in deaths of dozens of women and children.
Husband Bill allowed Hillary to make recommendations for the head of the Civil Rights Commission. Lani Guanier was her selection. When a little probing led to the discovery of Ms. Guanier’s radical views, her name had to be withdrawn from consideration.
Apparently a slow learner, husband Bill allowed Hillary to make some more recommendations. She chose former law partners Web Hubbel for the Justice Department, Vince Foster for the White House staff, and William Kennedy for the Treasury Department. Her selections went well: Hubbel went to prison, Foster (presumably) committed suicide, and Kennedy was forced to resign.
Many younger voters will have no knowledge of “Travelgate”. Hillary wanted to award unfettered travel contracts to Clinton friend Harry Thompson – but the White House Travel Office refused to comply. She managed to have them reported to the FBI and fired. This ruined their reputations, cost them their jobs, and caused a thirty-six month investigation. Only one employee, Billy Dale was charged with a crime, and that of the enormous crime of mixing personal and White House funds. A jury acquitted him of any crime in less than two hours.
Still not convinced of her ineptness, Hillary was allowed to recommend a close Clinton friend, Craig Livingstone, for the position of Director of White House security. When Livingstone was investigated for the improper access of about 900 FBI files of Clinton enemies (Filegate) and the widespread use of drugs by White House staff, suddenly Hillary and the president denied even knowing Livingstone, and of course, denied knowledge of drug use in the White House. Following this debacle, the FBI closed its White House Liaison Office after more than thirty years of service to seven presidents.
Next, when women started coming forward with allegations of sexual harassment and rape by Bill Clinton, Hillary was put in charge of the “bimbo eruption” and scandal defense. Some of her more notable decisions in the debacle were:
She urged her husband not to settle the Paula Jones lawsuit. After the Starr investigation they settled with Ms. Jones.
She refused to release the Whitewater documents, which led to the appointment of Ken Starr as Special Prosecutor. After $80 million dollars of taxpayer money was spent, Starr’s investigation led to Monica Lewinsky, which led to Bill lying about and later admitting his affairs.
Hillary’s devious game plan resulted in Bill losing his license to practice law for ‘lying under oath’ to a grand jury and then his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives.
Hillary avoided indictment for perjury and obstruction of justice during the Starr investigation by repeating, “I do not recall”, “I have no recollection”, and “I don’t know” a total of 56 times while under oath.
After leaving the White House, Hillary was forced to return an estimated $200,000 in White House furniture, china, and artwork that she had stolen.
What a swell party – ready for another four, or eight, years of this type of low-life mess?
Now we are exposed to the destruction of possibly incriminating emails while Hillary was Secretary of State, and the “pay to play” schemes of the Clinton Foundation – we have no idea what shoe will fall next. But to her loyal [low-information] fans – “What difference does it make…?”
Electing Hillary Clinton president would be like granting satan absolution and giving him the keys to heaven!
Please pass this on. Our way of life may depend on it.
.....thank you for this
…..thank you for this perfectly stated reminder and wake up call siting the too easily overlooked lengthy history hosting such a Clintonesque litany of imbedded subterranean corruption of improprieties demonstrative of their ceaseless use and abuse of entitlement and position they have consistently wielded inside and outside of political life. Reflecting back I think it is the utmost importance these compromising crimes of such indiscretion resurface in debate, maybe Trump will dishevel the dust in short order, no doubt. Please forward these reminders to the Bernie Sanders campaign, it’s time to take off the white gloves and expose what’s under the former insider’s hand and up the sleeve a bit of the deceiving blue powder power suit.
Hogwash
Hogwash
The Hill and The Bern
While there is some hyperbole going on about Hill Clinton, it’s not exactly all hogwash. If only half of AlanF claims are true, there is cause for concern. Of course there’s cause for concern about The Bern also.
In fact, the only president who was true to his (campaign) word was James K. Polk. “Polk is often considered the last strong pre–Civil War president, having met during his four years in office every major domestic and foreign policy goal set during his campaign…” Polk promised if he was elected he’d serve only one term. He kept his word.
Scholars have ranked him favorably on lists of greatest presidents for his ability to promote, obtain support for, and achieve all of the major items on his presidential agenda. Polk has been called the “least known ‘consequential’ president of the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_K._Polk
Pulk
Slave master and Godfather of Manifest Destiny.
The original American Exceptionalist.
Shall we not all emulate him?
Polked
Nah. No one said to emulate slave masters and exceptionalism, just Polk’s “ability to promote, obtain support for, and achieve all of the major items on his presidential agenda.” Don’t get too carried away, Will.
We all can concur
Hillary Clinton is hogwash.
Now wait a minute
I’m not a Hill or Bill fan, but the word “all” is hogwash. It’s not possible to speak for “all” nor is it possible for all to “concur.”
People, let’s keep our perspective here. No one has cast one damn vote yet. Let’s try not to get carried away with our generalities. The only thing going are debates, polls, and a whole lot of opinions….not exactly the most reliable sources…
Yes, it's about time to wash
Yes, it’s about time to wash the accumulating heaps of dirt off the prize hog for the presidency to see how squeaky clean the naked truth can be underneath at it’s core value (render down and drain off pork barrel excess spending) and keep the White house clean and true to Obama’s legacy of running the office with integrity, free of rampant and compromising scandal by hopefully staying clear of potential 8 yr. drama scene by squatter Clintons wallowing in the muck.
Go Bernie! A man of virtuous integrity demonstrating wisdom exposing the honest truth and seeking revolutionary change putting a halt to America’s potential middle class demise for the majority of it’s people who deserve to be reempowered and energized.
Not that it will matter
O’Malley seemed to win this most recent debate.
Sanders close second.
Clinton third.
imho
Neighed Down
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m finding this entire race incredibly tedious, juvenile and wasteful on all sides. Rather than a referendum on viable solutions to enormous problems it’s become like a prize fight that is ultimately meaningless except to boxing die hards- but the hype draws in multitudes. This election even more than those before has become a travesty. We are assaulted constantly with bloviation, posturing, boasting about fundraising, empty rhetoric, and unabashed dick wagging.
The republicans are true to form, in their ‘diverse’ bellicosity, so no real surprise from that camp. But I’d like to hear a lot more how Bernie and Hillary intend to deal with an intractable Congress, and a distracted populace. It’s one thing to float ideas as a stalking horse, to breakthrough dams and intractable dilemmas, quite another.
Apparently, as personality-obsessed and titillation driven consumers, we are getting the race we deserve. I just know there is something higher, but how to get there remains mysterious.
Don't take my word for it but
Don’t take my word for it but Bernie may just satisfy many of your concerns as he is purely incorruptible, unfortunately Con-regress is congress and any potential candidate will have their difficulties there!
Senator Hood
Is ‘purely incorruptible’ the same as absolutely un-cooptable? Seems to me Bernie is riding a razor’s edge into a steep conundrum. Can his revolution be both inner-driven and outer-controlled? History doesn’t reflect encouragingly in that regard. If he were truly insurrectionist, he’d be gone by now. So, must be he’s serving a useful purpose. Kind of like Occupy Wall St, and MoveOn.rg, inchoate movements with integrity(or aspirations)that pretty quickly were diffused and mainstreamed. The coop does not mess around.
Having met Bernie, shaken his hand, I can’t help but root for him and wince at the same time.
You just have to be like the
You just have to be like the man Bernie who is hardly giving up yet and I must say is still surprising detractors. If he feels an edge on Hillary in upcoming NH + Iowa caucuses, polls will fluctuate accordingly allowing some stronger light to peek through on his behalf I believe, despite the congruent media black out still attempting to keep him behind somewhere back and hardly visible in the Clinton sound bite shadows.
Bernie Blackout?
What media blackout?
I can’t go to any news source in my evening reads and views without seeing Bern on front page, headlined articles (usually up to 10 different publications). I also met the Bern when the presidency was no more than a wetdream, it was outside of BCTV in the hallway. All I got from him was a dirty look. I saw right away that he already knew who I was. Of course, at that time my hair was down to my ass and he knew of my work and articles in the papers and on TV with the Marijuana Resolve show. When we contacted his office to get a take on his support for our harm reduction measures to help keep young people out of prison for marijuana use and possession all we got was stonecold silence.
Now that he’s running for the Prez and saw young folks lining up he couldn’t wait to claim his high-spot in defense of removing marijuana from Schedule I.
Pure? Yeah right. Don’t get me wrong, I voted for Sanders each election and for good reasons. But listening to you Clinton haters, you’d think the man is a god. Hardly.
What can I say, Marijuana
What can I say, Marijuana legalization is a controversial issue but people are changing their stance toward reform from a legal and economic perspective that is harder to argue with. People are allowed to change their minds.
Early on Bernie was passed up for Hilary’s prepaid sound bites, of course that has changed now that Bernie has gained come from behind momentum and banking amassing support, no thanks to the corporate run networks. I don’t fanatically praise Bernie, he’s only human, even so a good guy at the heart that conscientiously does not waffle or promise to run a presidency reacting to what ever discriminate controlled poll influences the day or resort to a strategy of lies to cover up dirty deeds gone wrong.
"You don't fanatically praise Bernie” ?
“Marijuana legalization is a controversial issue but people are changing their stance toward reform from a legal and economic perspective that is harder to argue with.”
That’s is a simplistic view of of why “people are changing their stance toward reform.”
Wait a moment, Bernie isn’t just “People are allowed to change their minds.“
He’s running for president, for christsakes. His newly found support for marijuana to dangle in front of young people is what’s called opportunism. Opportunism is often part of the lack of integrity syndrome.
“I don’t fanatically praise Bernie”
Really? You could have fooled me.
“…he does not waffle or promise to run a presidency reacting to what ever discriminate controlled poll influences the day or resort to a strategy of lies to cover up dirty deeds gone wrong.”
Hey roadrunner, no candidate in their right mind would do that also. That’s not something exclusive to Bernie.
Geese Vidda! I'm afraid you
Geese Vidda (reefer)! I’m afraid you have really scared me off this page now making me feel so small as you exhale, so you can have this post all to yourself.
Try Bill Clinton as an example of my meaning and just as Hilary was attached to Bill, Bill will be attached to Hilary as partners for another possible 8 years anyway as it suites their respective ambitions whatever it takes to land the job, just as they have had each others backs from the beginning despite all those grounds for divorce that eluded them on their ruthless quest for ultimate power and top seat. They obviously have settled on some kind of warped pack.
Oh imagine what a fresh pool of voluptuous interns that impulsive Bill may now anxiously await to once again chase down and burn up the red carpet in the White House hallways for frills (that will keeps his sights on the White House) squandering taxpayers money while causing irreversible damage tarnishing the reputation or notion our elected officials can maintain some sense of national civility and fidelity. Such unrestrained actions compromise and limit possible achievements as they certainly did for his presidency, not to mention letting slip away the vital opportunity to responsively take on the requirements of the office initiating a given agenda people elected them to pursue, rather than becoming stuck in the quagmire of their own doing in scandal, yeah that’s a prime example of ethical leadership let me tell you and why the Clintons are so attracted to one another, unscrupulous birds of a feather take flight together sort of speak.
About Marijuana (which Bill did not inhale remember another little white house lie), no I don’t personally recommend or promote recreational use for those over 25 who don’t have the leisure time to indulge while trying to hold down two jobs to survive in this world and have family rearing obligations to uphold with respect to the impressionable under their care, not the best formula for success and guidance in my opinion but it certainly shouldn’t be outlawed when potentially destroying young lives with needless incarceration of course processing small(personal use) quantities, medical use is another issue I believe is perfectly valid.
It's okay rootrunner.....
To begin, I apologize for misspelling your name. I meant to type rootrunner.
If I can really scare you off this page by making you feel so small maybe I can help enlarge you.
You don’t seem to know when it comes to Hill and Bill, you’re preaching to the choir. But for some reason you didn’t catch on to that.
Your comments are largely divided between extolling Bernie and shredding Hill and Bill.
At least one other commenter called you to task for the extollation of the Bern. You are, after all, equally effusive about Bern, Hill and Bill, just in opposite directions. And, on this page I am not alone in failing to extol Bernie.
Lastly your personal recommendation about who should or should not use marijuana is rather strange to me. This piece is not about marijuana, but I did use Bernie’s failure all those years while he was in office to help all those young people in prison, until he had his eyes on the presidential prize. Why didn’t he speak up long before his presidential yearnings, if he was so concerned about the illegality of marijuana? Of course, I know why. Do you?
Personally, I have never personally recommended marijuana to anyone, and neither would I recommend who should use or not use marijuana (with the obvious exception to protect the underage). I’ll leave that kind bold opinion-making to you who’s made of stronger stuff than I am.
"help enlarge me" please this
“help enlarge me” please this is a public forum,(maybe Bill would take you up on that) maybe you meant to reassure me of my commentary flaws and contradictions….. anyway,
…and yes who am I either to recommend what is applicable to anyone’s lives in particular, just making a point without sounding too self righteous I hope, that many of us don’t have the time or luxury to slip away immersed in an excess of feel good drugs and alcohol to numb the reality of hardships we face and can’t ignore mostly for the sake of dependents who rely/depend on us under our charge, we have to keep it together.
Yes, I’m excited for Bernie’s prospects, greater restrictions on Wall St, Campaign funding reform, the possibility for universal health care, generating more jobs/benefits to restore our middle class while improving our infrastructure and making further strides to address global warming to name a few pressing issues. I do not trust the Clintons or any one who takes such extremes to blatantly conceal the truth before the American people lying with a televised straight face over and over again before all those watching and possibly paying attention.
We digress Rootrunner, but that ain’t so bad
This tangent has within it sadness. It is, or might be quite revealing about you. Not in a negative way. Even your misconceptions about drug use hangs on a limited understanding of drug use. But anyone who has to face, and I quote you, “the reality of hardships we face and can’t ignore mostly for the sake of dependents who rely/depend on us under our charge, we have to keep it together” cannot know the joys of marijuana and other drugs, something that is not easily admitted, much less talked openly about.
For one to think that marijuana is for those only under 25 suggests that one’s youth (yours?) is over, now dominated by the struggle to take charge of your dependents.
You cannot know this because of your hardships, but, drug use is not all about having (quoting you) “the time or luxury to slip away immersed in an excess of feel good drugs and alcohol to numb the reality of hardships we face and can’t ignore.” That sentiment is forced on you by culture and stigma and very little of it is actually true. In fact, only a minority of drug users fall into that category.
The bottom line is, if you’ve got dependents and responsibilities, and, the only way you can handle that is to not to do drugs, that’s fine, and appropriately so. But to have the perception of your needs and struggles spillover into overly characterizing other people in a negative way as I quote you above, does cross a line that should not be crossed, especially as we each pursue our happiness.
To each his own works best, but works better without judgment of the other.
I wish I had a way to lighten your burden.
But I also envy you. At my age and declining disposition I face burdens of another kind.
May you and your charges survive and exceed your responsibilities that the pleasures you and yours have now will know even greater happiness yet still.
Don't envy me but certainly
Don’t envy me but certainly not to worry. I was generalizing about some socio-economic aspects that have real impacts and consequences for family life consumed with substance abuse I have witness in real life no matter what kind of statistics you want to throw at me , I’m not as naive as you purport especially about my knowledge of and exposure to pot, I am aloud my personal take on the subject without being reduced to undo demeanor but do appreciate your expertise and devotion to the topic and do not wish to debate.
I will say one more thing, I do not believe the countries highest office should be available(shared) to those who once disgraced it’s image with appalling behavior, stonewalled and froze up progress and do not deserve a second chance, we can’t afford such poor decision making powers at this critical time to take charge of this country, just can’t take that kind of chance if we can help it. Take care of yourself and adios to the one that comes forth in mystic cloud called Vidda.
From the mystic cloud called Vidda
Whether you’re naive or not is one thing, but I see your drug views as part of the drug problems in this country, and not very useful towards helping the situation.
Your political views aren’t much better. Clinton left the White House with a federal budget balanced and with the federal deficit erased, and raised taxes “almost exclusively on upper-income taxpayers.” Hating the Clinton’s won’t help anything. But as you say,when it comes to drugs and the Clinton’s, you’re “aloud.”